EG on Politics

  Intro I’ve spent most of the past few days doing my day job with lots of interruptions to Tweet and post on Facebook when interesting news comes in.   Because some of the longer things I write on FB don’t make it to Twitter, aren’t public, and are fairly ephemeral (or at least hard for me to re-find on FB), I thought I’d edit them and put them out here, for others. Key topics are Recounts, Counts take a long time, Military / Provisional ballots, Predictions, and Final map.   I don’t plan too many more emails, likely one next week with some findings / insights (how wrong were the polls? Can they be fixed?   What will happen in Georgia).   Please let me know if you want me to remove you from this list and feel free to point others to: My blog: https://bit.ly/EGeNight Twitter: @evangrossman Facebook: EvanGrossman Recounts With GA, WI, PA and possibly others headed for a recount, how likely is it the vote will change? NBC News has a formal take on recounts… Rarely do recou

  “Somewhere between a landslide and a nail-biter,” was 538’s final assessment, which other than being extremely wishy-washy rings true based on all the data I’ve seen – the current polling points to a landslide, but if it’s only off by a little, it then turns into a nail-biter.  And, we all remember that polling can be off! Here are my thoughts on following along from home tonight.   I’ve provided two 1-page PDFs (Senate & Presidential) that provide some key data to track.   Fundamentally, the three things to watch (other than Electoral college estimates) to get an idea of what’s happening are: Trumps’s national percentage compared to ’16 (he got 46.1% of the vote in ’16 and would need at least 49% to win the national vote this year because there aren’t strong 3 rd party candidates) Each state’s Trump percentage compared to the polling averages (I’ve included the final 538 forecast in the PDF).   If Trump is doing 2-3 points better than the final forecasts, that’s problemat