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Tea leaves to read for the 12/6/22 GA Runoff

  Deja vu all over again, as we go into Sen. Raphael Warnock’s 4th general election in <2 years… I predict this election will be callable by 9pm Eastern (polls close at 7), but it’s possible that it will be so close that it will take longer and/or go into recount territory. Today (Mon. 11/28) is the official start to early voting and the last day to request an absentee ballot; several counties allowed early voting over this past weekend, and 182k ballots have already been received. The GA Sec.State website has some good visualizations as does amateur analyst Ryan Anderson . 9p 11/28 update -- record breaking 320k early votes today sounds impressive, bringing early vote total to >400k. BUT, at this rate total early vote will at best hit 1.8m, compared to 2.1m in 1/21 and 2.3m on 11/8/22 -- Warnock & Walker will need to bring another 500k voters out on eDay than have voted in each of the past 3 General Senate elections (11/8/22, 1/5/21, 11/3/20 general) to have get north of 3.
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Evan’s Midterm election viewing guide

  Evan 1 ’ s Midterm election viewing guide - cover page I’ll try to keep my personal politics and predictions out of this, and provide this as a service for folks who want to understand as quickly as possible on Election Night what is happening.  The Senate is in play, the house will likely switch to Republican, several Gubernatorial seats could switch parties, etc.  Below is a list by poll closing hour of the states and races to watch.  I decided to not focus on control of the House, as I believe many of the close races will not be known until much later in the night (although early indications of stronger than expected D or R success at the statewide level will provide a good barometer, and VA02, VA07, VA10, IN01 and NH02 will likely have results by 10p and be an early indicator 2 , details further down). As with previous guides, please share as broadly and widely as you’d like.  The link is https://evan.bz/22en I’ll be on twitter and facebook (handle evangrossman) with updates thr
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Random election-related items

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  Intro I’ve spent most of the past few days doing my day job with lots of interruptions to Tweet and post on Facebook when interesting news comes in.   Because some of the longer things I write on FB don’t make it to Twitter, aren’t public, and are fairly ephemeral (or at least hard for me to re-find on FB), I thought I’d edit them and put them out here, for others. Key topics are Recounts, Counts take a long time, Military / Provisional ballots, Predictions, and Final map.   I don’t plan too many more emails, likely one next week with some findings / insights (how wrong were the polls? Can they be fixed?   What will happen in Georgia).   Please let me know if you want me to remove you from this list and feel free to point others to: My blog: https://bit.ly/EGeNight Twitter: @evangrossman Facebook: EvanGrossman Recounts With GA, WI, PA and possibly others headed for a recount, how likely is it the vote will change? NBC News has a formal take on recounts… Rarely do recou
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